Channel sources predicts dire Q2

Things are looking horrific for the UK PC market in Q2. Even if the Intel 3rd Generation launch goes really well, it might not be enough to save some companies. KitGuru taps its sources and delivers the bad news.

The PC market is seasonal anyway. Christmas etc all bring a surge, warm weather and sports events bring a downturn. That's a tradition – it's how it has always been. But this year will be worse.

With record temperatures in March, people are already spending more time outdoors. The launch of the iPad 3 was a bit of a ‘spare budget soaker'. Moving toward summer, we also have the European Football Championships and, if memory serves, there will be a small sporting event in London during the hottest days of the year.

While hot dog vendors might be thanking their own, personal ‘God of the reclaimed meats', PC manufacturers will be cursing the day that London won its bid to host the biggie. The Olympics will bring London to a standstill, in terms of transport, but it's also likely to bring the sales lines/webs sites of most computer companies to halt just as effectively.

The compounded problem is that while football will ensure that men (of all shapes, sizes and ages) are glued to their screens, the Olympics creates a much more universal appeal. For every horse lover, there is a diving enthusiast and for every gymnast there is a budding cycle champ. The ‘shut down' effect on UK trade (especially the PC business) could be dire.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, was recently quoted as saying “Data from the Office for National Statistics add to signs that the worst may be over for the UK economy and that a double-dip recession will be avoided. We expect to see increasing numbers of overly gloomy analysts start revising up their growth forecasts for 2012 in the light of these better-than-anticipated numbers”. Which is fine, except that he may be counting on the Olympics+Euro+weather calculation to equal such a huge increase in services that the overall effect is a summer boost.

KitGuru says: We have spoken with several multi-billion dollar organisations – all of whom are saying that they will just pretend that most of 2012 did not happen, bury their collective heads in the sand and hope that Apple does not bring the iPhone 5 out just after the Olympics. It's Hot Dogs over Hot Specs this summer, if you want to retire young/rich.

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