Analysts ponder 3% drop in chip market for 2012

While everyone seems to agree that 2013 will be lucky for most, 2012 is definitely turning into a disaster zone for most of the chip producers on the planet, in one way or another. Analysts at the Carnegie Group are now saying that they think they predicted 2012 to be 3% higher than it will actually turn out to be. KitGuru pulls out its trusty slide rule to consider what this means.

Many companies posting an increase in sales for Q1 better get ready for some terrible news when it adds up the same numbers for Q2.

That's the kind of conclusion that KitGuru is drawing from the available data. When you take into account the European football championships, the up-coming Olympics, economic meltdown in southern Europe – as well as the world plus dog needing a holiday to get away from it all – you need to wonder, “How much money will be left to buy a new PC?”

Alongside that, we all know that the iPhone 5 will be hitting our stores and our pockets soon enough [Big news coming soon here, so watch this KitGuru space – Ed].

With all of these factors against technology companies, what does the outlook seem to be like for the future?

Well, in 2013, almost every analyst is predicting growth. Whether it will come from Microsoft launching a new operating system, Apple driving forward with a possible pair of new iPads or corporate refresh cycles that will be looking at their ‘old' Windows 7 systems and deciding that they needs new equipment, is uncertain – but there appears to be hope.

One of the biggest potential drivers for the new year will be energy conservation. We've seen a lot of systems in the KitGuru Labs with chunky power supplies and an array of CPU/GPU options that are hungry for electrons.

At the same time, you need to consider what is possible with something like an APU-powered PC like the Sapphire Edge HD3, which almost looks like it could survive on sunlight.

If you're wondering where the ‘meat' is, compared to all the fluffy-potato opinions, then we can tell you that sources close to IDC are predicting a doubling in sales of consumer computers costing under £200, with a 45% increase in those costing around £250. Not bad.

Consumer sales of systems around the £400 mark are expected to take a hit.

However, the single largest increase is predicted to be in the £699 market where sales are expected to increase by more than 250% in 2013. Which would be a fully-loaded Intel Core i3 or an overclocked AMD FX-based system.

KitGuru says: Whatever the driver for 2013, we can expect some pitiful results in 2012 – especially for companies which don't have the right R&D/Marketing/Sales Direction in place. If there was one time to have the right person at the helm, it's on the way out of a recession.

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